Cruzed or Trumped?

Looking closely at Iowa caucuses


MCT Photo

Volunteers from around the U.S. live at ” Camp Cruz,” an old college dormitory in Des Moines. They walked neighborhoods and work phone banks, urging Iowans to support Sen. Ted Cruz in the caucuses on Feb. 1. He and Trump are currently running neck-and-neck.

All across the internet, media, and news reports, there has been so much buzz about the upcoming Iowa caucuses (and yes, the nationwide primaries as well), especially with Republican candidates still dropping out of the race.

So, who is going to come out on top on the Republican side? Donald Trump or Ted Cruz?

Various polls have shown Cruz as beating Trump in the polls. Some have even predicted that he will win in the Iowa caucuses. But is this true?

One poll suggests Cruz is up by four points, the other that Trump is actually the one up by four points. So who is really in the lead?

Well, the difference between the results is enough to account to possible statistical variation. Thus, we can say there is no statistical difference between the two and neither is winning.

But, polls capture trends. It all depends on when the polling was done. One may capture more support for Trump before and another may show a surge towards Cruz. This would suggest that Cruz is gaining more support.

I find that the discrepancies between the hundreds of polls out there (not just these two) may be due to Trump’s very controversial statements.

Such as when he made comments about screening Muslims in the United States.

Because he keeps alienating various groups of Americans (whether they are ethnic, cultural, even gender) with his scathing remarks and plans to “better America.” Trump believes that “bigger is better.”

As he once said, “I like thinking big. If you’re going to be thinking anything, you might as well think big.”

But this is not business… it is politics. America does not need a businessman. It needs a president.

So that may be a reason why Cruz appears to be slowly gaining on Trump.

Are there any other reasons?

It could be that the polls were conducted in different ways. One could rely more on email than cellphones. Or there could be variations from county to county in Iowa.

Most likely, it is a combination of all these factors that has caused this variation.

So I cannot tell you which candidate is currently in the lead or which one could possibly come out on top at the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1.

What I can tell you is that there is an increasing interest in Cruz and his candidacy among GOP voters.

And that so far, no matter the obstacles in his way (whether put there by himself or someone else), Trump seems to constantly make a comeback to maintain a leading position.